India during Bangladesh’s disturbed phase.

India Amidst Bangladesh’s Turmoil: A Neighbor’s Watchful Eye

India during Bangladesh’s disturbed phase.

On August 5 -2024, Bangladesh experienced a dramatic political shift as Sheikh Hasina, the former Prime Minister was removed from power, ending her long-standing tenure that began in January 2009. This sudden change, ignited by student protests and escalating into a full-scale crisis has caused widespread concern and uncertainty.

Who is former Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina?

Sheikh Hasina is daughter of Bangladesh’s first president Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. She started her political career after her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and most of her family member were killed in a military coup in 1975. She wasn't in Bangladesh at the time and lived abroad for several years. In 1981, she returned to Bangladesh and took over her father's political party, the Awami League. She led the party in opposing the military government of President Ziaur Rahman, this helped the party to become important again.

She became Bangladesh's first female Prime Minister in 1996 and served until 2001. After that, she lost the next election to a coalition led by other political parties. In January 2007, she was arrested for corruption and extortion, but many of her supporters believed it was a political attack. In December 2008, she won the elections again and became Prime Minister in January 2009. She won again in 2014 and 2018 and served multiple terms. Currently after political shift in country she resigned as Bangladesh’s Prime minister and came to India.

Origin and Escalation of Bangladesh Crisis.

The crisis in Bangladesh has several root causes:

1. Student Protest: The crisis began with student protest over issues such as inadequate safety measures and allegations of corruption in educational institutions. These protests quickly grew as they resonated with broader discontent with the government's policies such as Bangladesh's job quota system. Protesters said it disproportionately benefits the descendants of Bangladesh 1971 liberation war fighters, which many protesters view as unfair and outdated for their personal and political motives.

2. Political Discontent: Sheikh Hasina’s extended rule had led to rising dissatisfaction due to rise of corruption, authoritarian practices, and suppression of opposition. The student protests were a reflection of larger discontent with the ruling administration.

3. Economic Pressures: Although country’s economy was appreciated for roaring in South Asia and was claimed to stand along with India, there was huge discontent among citizens. Economic difficulties, including inflation and unemployment, further ignited public frustration. The economic strain on ordinary citizens added urgency and intensity to the protests.

4. Electoral Concerns: Previous elections had been questioned by allegations of manipulation and irregularities, contributing to a tense political climate. Questions about the legitimacy of the Sheikh Hasina's regime played a role in the crisis.

The crisis escalated quickly from localized student protests to widespread demonstrations and civil unrest, further exacerbated by violent clashes between protesters and security forces. This was immediately turned into religious conflict and Hindus of Bangladesh were targeted (killed, their houses burnt, women raped) and were compelled to migrate towards Indian border. As the situation continues to develop, one of the key questions is how this crisis affects neighbouring India.

Implications for India-

Disturbance in Bangladesh has several important implications for India due to their close geographical, economic, and political ties:

1. Security Issues: Increased instability in Bangladesh may lead to a surge in cross-border migration, particularly affecting India’s northeastern states. This could create additional security challenges and can strain local resources. This can increase infiltration along with cross border arms supply and militant can cause disturbance in border districts.

2. Economic Effects: Bangladesh is a key trading partner for India, and disruptions in Bangladesh’s economic stability could impact trade relations, supply chains, and investments. Indian companies operating in Bangladesh may face operational difficulties and uncertainties.

3. Regional Politics: The crisis in Bangladesh could alter regional political dynamics. India might need to adjust its diplomatic approach in response to the new political situation and manage its relations with other regional and international players who might influence or exploit the crisis.

4. Humanitarian Issues: India may need to address humanitarian concerns arising from the crisis, including potential refugee in India and the provision of aid. Coordinating with international organizations and neighbouring countries will be essential along with some bold steps by government to maintain safety and security of Indian citizens. Along with this Government need to check demographic challenges for bordering district of India, near Bangladesh.

5. Diplomatic Relations: The shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape could affect India’s relationship with its neighbour. India will need to navigate its engagement with the new leadership to maintain strong bilateral relations and continue cooperation on various fronts, such as security, trade, and regional development.

6. China’s ill intention. Under Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh managed to maintain a balance between India and China. It’s unclear if the opposition parties or the current government will follow the same approach. China often takes advantage of a country’s political instability to increase its influence. If Bangladesh faces political unrest, China might see it as a chance to expand its presence in South Asia by offering attractive deals to the new government.

7. We’ve seen similar situations with the Maldives and Sri Lanka. India needs to be cautious and proactive. To address this, India should focus on two main goals: first, to prevent extremist groups from gaining ground and ensure Bangladesh’s economic stability; and second, to monitor and counter any attempts by China to exploit the situation for its benefit.

8. Risk of Anti-Indian Sentiment among Bangladeshi Public: Under Sheikh Hasina’s rule, India and Bangladesh have worked with each other closely. And with her seeking refuge in India, her unpopularity within Bangladesh runs the risk of an anti-Indian sentiment. Often the general public is unaware of the complexity of bilateral relationships and may be quick to equate one particular leader with the whole nation. The next administration could not be as friendly toward India, especially when it comes to delicate matters like trade and security. The possible consequences might worsen India-Bangladesh ties and jeopardize the gains of the last ten years.

India-Bangladesh ties Since 1971-

The partnership between India and Bangladesh has significantly strengthened, matured, and evolved over the past few decades, serving as a model for bilateral relations in South Asia and beyond. This relationship has been marked by deep historical, cultural, and economic ties, and has seen substantial progress in various areas such as trade, connectivity, security, and people-to-people contact.

Historical Context-

1. Shared History since Independence Struggle: India played a crucial role in the liberation of Bangladesh from Pakistan in 1971, forging a bond of solidarity and shared history. Operation Jackpot to train Mukti Vahini by Indian Army played crucial role in liberation of Bangladesh from Pakistan atrocities.

2. Cultural Linkages: The two countries share deep cultural, linguistic, and social ties, with Bengali culture and language acting as a strong unifying factor.

3. Evolution of Bilateral Relations

Early Years: The initial years post-independence was marked by strong cooperation. However, the relationship experienced strains during various periods due to political changes and regional dynamics.

Contemporary Era: Since the early 2000s, especially under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina and subsequent Indian governments, the relationship has seen a great growth, with good efforts to strengthen ties.

Key Areas of Cooperation-

1. Trade and Economic Relations

Bilateral Trade: Trade between India and Bangladesh has grown significantly, with both countries benefiting from tariff concessions and trade agreements. Bangladesh is currently India’s largest trading partner in South Asia.

Economic Initiatives: Initiatives like the India-Bangladesh Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) aim to further enhance economic cooperation.

2. Connectivity and Infrastructure Development

Transport Links: Restoration and expansion of railway, road, and waterway connections have been prioritized to facilitate trade and movement of people. Projects like the Maitree Express train service exemplify this connectivity.

Energy Cooperation: Joint ventures in the energy sector, including the import of electricity from India to Bangladesh, have strengthened economic ties and regional energy security.

3. Security and Strategic Cooperation

Counter-Terrorism: Both countries have co-operated extensively in counter-terrorism efforts, addressing concerns of cross-border insurgency and extremism.

Defence Cooperation: Defence ties have been bolstered through joint military exercises, training programs, and high-level visits, contributing to regional stability.

4. Water Sharing and Environmental Collaboration

Transboundary Rivers: The sharing of waters from common rivers, such as the Ganges and the Teesta, remains a critical area of cooperation and contention. Agreements like the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty have been milestones, though challenges persist.

Environmental Issues: Joint efforts in addressing environmental challenges, including climate change and river management, are essential for sustainable development in the region.

5. Cultural and People-to-People Contacts

Visa Liberalization: Efforts to liberalize visa regimes have facilitated greater people-to-people contact, enhancing cultural and social bonds.

Educational and Cultural Exchanges: Scholarships, cultural programs, and academic exchanges have further strengthened the socio-cultural fabric of bilateral relations.

Challenges and Opportunities-

Border Management: Despite progress, border management issues, including border killings and illegal migration, remain sensitive and require continued cooperation.

Water Sharing Disputes: The Teesta water-sharing agreement remains unresolved, posing a challenge to the relationship. Combined cooperation between both the country’s needed to solve this bone of contention.

Economic Integration: Greater economic integration through initiatives like regional trade blocs can enhance mutual prosperity.

Regional Stability: Strengthened India-Bangladesh ties can serve as a stabilizing factor in South Asia, promoting peace and cooperation in the region.

Minority Rights: Hindu minority in Bangladesh is currently facing threats from the majority Muslims. Under these scenario India needs raise voice for Hindus in Bangladesh and should diplomatically kill the intentions of organizations planning to eradicate Hindus from Bangladesh. India being Hindu’s natural land, should show their deep concerns for Hindus in Bangladesh.

Conclusion-

India is facing a tough time dealing with the challenges from the current crisis in Bangladesh. To handle this, India needs to quickly adjust to the changing situation in its neighbour. This means India should be patient, understand the importance of geography and trade, and stay committed to improving relations with Bangladesh despite past issues from the partition and ideological differences from current government of Bangladesh. Apart from this India needs to show concern for the Hindu minority of Bangladesh, and should raise its voice through global platform and organizations. Moreover, India should take strategic and military actions if needed.

Although challenges remain for both the countries, the progress made in various sectors shows the potential for even greater collaboration. Both the countries need to address outstanding issues and leveraging opportunities for deeper integration, India and Bangladesh can not only strengthen their bilateral relationship but also contribute significantly to regional stability and development. This is more beneficial for Bangladesh to progress its economy and move towards political stability to provide better future for their generations and to limit religious terrorisms and disturbance. They should intelligently think about their actions and should avoid to move ahead on the path of Pakistan. It’s a soul responsibility of leaders to showcase Bangladesh image different from the country like Pakistan which is safe harbour for terrorism and militancy.

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